Pittsburgh Pirates (42-42) @ Philadelphia Phillies (47-37)
Mon Jun 29, 5:40 PM CDT Data: High 🟢 Verified Odds · FanDuel · 38 minutes ago
⚠️ Model Lean Not Recommended Low Probability House Model
🎯 Model Lean: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-102)
Confidence: 56% · Edge vs market: 7.2%
⏰ GAME START
5:40 PM CDT
Starts in 15h 59m
Why Brother Willie Passed on This Play
  • ✗ Confidence below the 60% threshold (56%)
Brother Willie Verdict
Model lean is real, but the projected win rate is too low.

Starting Pitchers

Pittsburgh Pirates
Braxton Ashcraft RightHP 7-3
ERA 3.07 · WHIP 1.09 · K/9 10.0
Rating: 65
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola RightHP 3-4
ERA 5.58 · WHIP 1.45 · K/9 9.2
Rating: 32
Pitcher info refreshed 38 minutes ago

Probability Comparison (Home Win)

Market 54% —
House Model (v1) 44% -9.3%

Odds Snapshot

FanDuel — 38 minutes ago
ML Home: -116 | ML Away: -102

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