Washington Nationals (60-63) @ New York Mets (53-69)
Fri Aug 14, 6:10 PM CDT Data: Med 🟢 Verified Odds · FanDuel · 2 hours, 40 minutes ago
Line moved
⚠️ Model Lean Not Recommended Low Probability House Model
🎯 Model Lean: Washington Nationals Moneyline (+106)
Confidence: 56% · Edge vs market: 9.7%
⏰ GAME START
6:10 PM CDT
Starts in 20h 26m
Why Brother Willie Passed on This Play
  • ✗ Confidence below the 60% threshold (56%)
Brother Willie Verdict
Model lean is real, but the projected win rate is too low.

Starting Pitchers

Washington Nationals
Andrew Alvarez LeftHP 2-3
ERA 3.76 · WHIP 1.40 · K/9 8.4
Rating: 47
New York Mets
Robert Stock RightHP 0-2
ERA 10.13 · WHIP 2.13 · K/9 9.0
Rating: 19
Pitcher info refreshed 2 hours, 41 minutes ago

Probability Comparison (Home Win)

Market 55% —
House Model (v1) 44% -11.8%

Market Movement

↗ Market Moving · movement score 43/100
Sharp money is moving toward the recommended pick (Washington Nationals). The market agrees with the model's read; displayed confidence is nudged by +1pp.

Odds Snapshot

FanDuel — 2 hours, 40 minutes ago
ML Home: -124 | ML Away: 106

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