San Diego Padres (65-57) @ Cleveland Guardians (59-63)
Fri Aug 14, 6:10 PM CDT Data: Med 🟢 Verified Odds · FanDuel · 2 hours, 41 minutes ago
Line moved
⚠️ Model Lean Not Recommended Low Probability House Model
🎯 Model Lean: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-130)
Confidence: 56% · Edge vs market: 1.6%
⏰ GAME START
6:10 PM CDT
Starts in 20h 25m
Why Brother Willie Passed on This Play
  • ✗ Confidence below the 60% threshold (56%)
Brother Willie Verdict
Model lean is real, but the projected win rate is too low.

Starting Pitchers

San Diego Padres
Michael King RightHP 7-8
ERA 3.37 · WHIP 1.17 · K/9 7.9
Rating: 56
Cleveland Guardians
Gavin Williams RightHP 11-6
ERA 3.55 · WHIP 1.04 · K/9 11.5
Rating: 65
Pitcher info refreshed 2 hours, 41 minutes ago

Probability Comparison (Home Win)

Market 57% —
House Model (v1) 56% -0.7%

Market Movement

↗ Market Moving · movement score 41/100
Meaningful market movement detected on this game (Moderate). Direction is mixed or doesn't strongly favor either side relative to the recommendation.

Odds Snapshot

FanDuel — 2 hours, 41 minutes ago
ML Home: -130 | ML Away: 110

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